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All indicators

Current value, changes, point-in-time historical percentile, z-score, stress (0–100), signal and trend for every tracked series. Trend arrows describe stress: ↑ deteriorating · → stable · ↓ improving (change in stress over ~3 months, ±5 pts). “·” = context-dependent indicator that is not scored. Status is judged against each series' release frequency.

Treasury / Yield Curve

IndicatorSignalCurrent1W1M3M6M12MPctlZStressTrendStatusAs of
US 30Y Treasury yieldcontext5.43%−17 bps+7 bps+34 bps+50 bps+79 bps50-0.2—·LIVE2026-10-15
US 10Y Treasury yieldcontext5.10%−12 bps+10 bps+53 bps+78 bps+105 bps47-0.2—·LIVE2026-10-15
US 5Y Treasury yieldcontext4.91%−8 bps+8 bps+63 bps+100 bps+128 bps47-0.2—·LIVE2026-10-15
US 2Y Treasury yieldcontext4.77%+2 bps+10 bps+61 bps+99 bps+127 bps52-0.0—·LIVE2026-10-15
US 3M Treasury yieldcontext4.28%+5 bps+17 bps+44 bps+58 bps+25 bps530.1—·LIVE2026-10-15
Effective Fed Funds ratecontext3.88%±0 bps+25 bps+25 bps+24 bps−22 bps45——·LIVE2026-10-15
10Y–2Y spreadWatch+0.33 pp−14 bps±0 bps−8 bps−21 bps−22 bps32-0.659→LIVE2026-10-15
10Y–3M spreadNormal+0.82 pp−17 bps−7 bps+9 bps+20 bps+80 bps31-0.648→LIVE2026-10-15
10Y–3M deepest inversion (trailing 24M)Elevated−0.70 pp+1 bps+63 bps+87 bps+87 bps+95 bps19—81↓LIVE2026-10-15
30Y–10Y spreadcontext+0.33 pp−5 bps−3 bps−19 bps−28 bps−26 bps53-0.1—·LIVE2026-10-15
2Y–3M spread (expected policy path)Normal+0.49 pp−3 bps−7 bps+17 bps+41 bps+102 bps44-0.217↓LIVE2026-10-15
10Y real yield (TIPS)context2.78%−9 bps+16 bps+43 bps+85 bps+102 bps991.7—·LIVE2026-10-15
10Y term premium (Kim-Wright)Watch1.07%−1 bps+17 bps+29 bps+42 bps+57 bps660.366↑RECENT2026-10-09
10Y yield: absolute 3M move (rates volatility proxy)Watch53 bps−15 bps−4 bps+28 bps+38 bps+12 bps73—73↑LIVE2026-10-15

Credit Stress

IndicatorSignalCurrent1W1M3M6M12MPctlZStressTrendStatusAs of
US High Yield OASWatch3.23%+8 bps+47 bps+52 bps+37 bps+28 bps750.475↑LIVE2026-10-15
CCC & lower OASSevere12.78%+26 bps+193 bps+308 bps+357 bps+431 bps1003.8100↑LIVE2026-10-15
Investment Grade OASNormal0.84%+2 bps+4 bps+6 bps+3 bps+6 bps49-0.449↑LIVE2026-10-15
BBB corporate OASNormal1.05%+3 bps+7 bps+9 bps+4 bps+6 bps48-0.448↑LIVE2026-10-15
Baa – 10Y Treasury spreadNormal1.44%−4 bps−4 bps−15 bps−27 bps−24 bps2-1.22↓LIVE2026-10-15
HY OAS rate of widening (3M)Watch52 bps+7 bps+47 bps+67 bps+37 bps+57 bps93—64↑LIVE2026-10-15
Financial-sector credit spread
No free, licensable official daily series. Sector OAS indices are proprietary (ICE/Bloomberg).
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Labor Market

IndicatorSignalCurrent1W1M3M6M12MPctlZStressTrendStatusAs of
Unemployment rateNormal4.2%—+0.1 pp±0.0 pp−0.1 pp−0.2 pp22—25↓LIVE2026-09-01
Sahm Rule indicatorNormal±0.00 pp—+0.07 pp−0.07 pp−0.23 pp−0.23 pp40—25↓LIVE2026-09-01
Initial jobless claimsNormal199,000+0.5%−3.9%−4.8%−4.3%−14.6%3—19↓LIVE2026-10-10
Continuing claimsNormal1,710,000−0.2%−3.1%−4.9%−5.5%−11.4%11—27↓RECENT2026-10-03
Nonfarm payroll change (monthly)context+29k—−104k−2k−185k−47k26——–LIVE2026-09-01
Payroll growth, 3-month averageElevated+51k—−1k−30k−22k+27k25—75→LIVE2026-09-01
Average hourly earnings, YoYNormal3.0%—−0.1 pp−0.4 pp−0.4 pp−0.8 pp51—28↓LIVE2026-09-01
Job openings (JOLTS)Watch7,079—−3.5%−6.1%−2.2%+2.3%75—56→RECENT2026-08-01
Quits rate (JOLTS)Watch1.9%—±0.0 pp−0.1 pp−0.1 pp−0.1 pp34—66↑RECENT2026-08-01

Manufacturing / Activity

IndicatorSignalCurrent1W1M3M6M12MPctlZStressTrendStatusAs of
ISM Manufacturing PMI
ISM Manufacturing PMI: proprietary series not loaded (ISM data is proprietary and is not redistributed by FRED. Load via POST /api/recession/manual if licensed.)
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ISM Manufacturing New Orders
ISM Manufacturing New Orders: proprietary series not loaded (Proprietary - manual load only.)
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ISM Manufacturing Employment
ISM Manufacturing Employment: proprietary series not loaded (Proprietary - manual load only.)
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ISM Services PMI
ISM Services PMI: proprietary series not loaded (Proprietary - manual load only.)
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ISM Services New Orders
ISM Services New Orders: proprietary series not loaded (Proprietary - manual load only.)
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Philadelphia Fed manufacturing activityNormal20.9—−16.9−20.5−5.8+31.075—0↓LIVE2026-10-01
Empire State manufacturing conditionsNormal25.5—+17.9+9.9+14.5+17.791—14↓LIVE2026-10-01
Industrial production, YoYWatch2.2%—+0.6 pp+0.8 pp+1.6 pp+0.4 pp43—57↓LIVE2026-09-01
Real retail sales, YoYNormal2.5%—+0.3 pp+0.1 pp+2.2 pp+1.8 pp56—44→LIVE2026-09-01
Real personal consumption, YoYNormal2.6%—+0.3 pp−0.1 pp+0.5 pp−0.3 pp64—36→RECENT2026-08-01
Real GDP growth (q/q SAAR)Normal2.2%———+2.0 pp−1.8 pp35—36↓LIVE2026-04-01
Atlanta Fed GDPNowNormal3.6%——+2.1 pp—+0.2 pp84—7↓LIVE2026-07-01

Housing

IndicatorSignalCurrent1W1M3M6M12MPctlZStressTrendStatusAs of
Housing startsWatch1,275—−2.6%+7.9%−7.9%−1.2%31—56↓RECENT2026-08-01
Building permitsNormal1,403—−2.1%−0.5%+0.7%+4.2%53—48↓RECENT2026-08-01
Existing home salesn/a3,990,000—+1.5%−3.4%−0.5%−2.2%12——–LIVE2026-09-01
New home salesWatch684—+6.4%+7.5%+18.8%−2.0%62—60↑RECENT2026-08-01
Housing affordability index (NAR)n/a105.4—+1.7+4.0−7.1—38——–LIVE2026-09-01
30Y fixed mortgage rateElevated7.40%±0 bps+64 bps+85 bps+110 bps+110 bps52-0.186↑LIVE2026-10-15
New home months' supplyElevated8.5—−0.5−0.7−1.4±0.088—88→RECENT2026-08-01
Active housing listingscontext1,161,615—+1.9%+5.4%+22.5%+5.4%77——·LIVE2026-09-01

Inflation

IndicatorSignalCurrent1W1M3M6M12MPctlZStressTrendStatusAs of
CPI inflation, YoYElevated3.7%—+0.4 pp+0.3 pp+0.4 pp+0.7 pp67—77→LIVE2026-09-01
Core CPI inflation, YoYWatch2.6%—+0.1 pp+0.0 pp−0.0 pp−0.5 pp45—55→LIVE2026-09-01
PCE inflation, YoYWatch3.4%—+0.1 pp−0.4 pp+0.7 pp+0.7 pp64—73↓RECENT2026-08-01
Core PCE inflation, YoYWatch3.0%—+0.0 pp−0.2 pp+0.1 pp+0.2 pp58—69→RECENT2026-08-01
5Y breakeven inflationNormal2.37%+3 bps+2 bps+10 bps−19 bps+8 bps760.748↑LIVE2026-10-16
10Y breakeven inflationNormal2.35%+2 bps+2 bps+11 bps−1 bps+7 bps720.647↑LIVE2026-10-16
UMich 1Y inflation expectationsElevated4.0%—−0.2 pp−0.8 pp±0.0 pp−0.8 pp78—75↓RECENT2026-08-01

Commodities / Energy

IndicatorSignalCurrent1W1M3M6M12MPctlZStressTrendStatusAs of
WTI crudeSevere101.91+7.3%−0.5%+26.2%+9.5%+71.2%95—94↑LIVE2026-10-14
Brent crudeSevere126.55+0.4%+4.4%+52.3%+10.1%+100.9%99—100↑LIVE2026-10-14
Henry Hub natural gasNormal3.22+1.9%+13.0%+15.0%+15.8%+13.8%51—44↑LIVE2026-10-14
Goldcontext4,165−0.7%−4.1%+3.8%−13.8%−2.0%94——·LIVE2026-10-17
Coppercontext13,543—−0.1%+5.1%+14.9%+38.6%100——·RECENT2026-07-01

Equity Market

IndicatorSignalCurrent1W1M3M6M12MPctlZStressTrendStatusAs of
S&P 500Normal7,659−1.9%+1.4%+2.7%+7.5%+15.5%98—20→LIVE2026-10-16
Nasdaq 100Normal29,936−2.6%+3.4%+3.1%+13.7%+21.0%100—41↓LIVE2026-10-15
Russell 2000 (IWM proxy)Elevated270−3.0%−4.7%−8.0%−1.9%+10.4%97—77↑LIVE2026-10-16
S&P 500 3-month momentumWatch2.7%−0.4 pp+0.9 pp−1.9 pp+0.0 pp−2.6 pp36—64↑LIVE2026-10-16
VIXNormal16.5+1.1−0.7−0.3−1.5−4.243-0.443→LIVE2026-10-15
S&P 500 forward P/E
Consensus forward earnings and constituent-level breadth are proprietary (FactSet, S&P, LSEG). No reliable free API is licensed for redistribution, so the value is not shown rather than estimated.
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S&P 500 earnings yield
Consensus forward earnings and constituent-level breadth are proprietary (FactSet, S&P, LSEG). No reliable free API is licensed for redistribution, so the value is not shown rather than estimated.
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10Y Treasury minus S&P earnings yield
Consensus forward earnings and constituent-level breadth are proprietary (FactSet, S&P, LSEG). No reliable free API is licensed for redistribution, so the value is not shown rather than estimated.
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Market breadth (% above 200-day)
Consensus forward earnings and constituent-level breadth are proprietary (FactSet, S&P, LSEG). No reliable free API is licensed for redistribution, so the value is not shown rather than estimated.
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Financial Conditions

IndicatorSignalCurrent1W1M3M6M12MPctlZStressTrendStatusAs of
Chicago Fed NFCINormal-0.50+0.01+0.04+0.02−0.03+0.0239-0.539→LIVE2026-10-09
Chicago Fed Adjusted NFCINormal-0.49+0.01+0.06+0.06−0.04+0.0840-0.540↑LIVE2026-10-09
Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index
Proprietary to Goldman Sachs; no licensed public API. The Chicago Fed NFCI is used instead.
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Broad US dollar indexNormal121.6+0.2%+3.2%+0.9%+2.3%+0.4%91—46→RECENT2026-10-09
Bank lending standards (SLOOS, C&I)Normal0.0——−8.1—−9.549—40↓LIVE2026-07-01

Consumer

IndicatorSignalCurrent1W1M3M6M12MPctlZStressTrendStatusAs of
UMich consumer sentimentSevere51.7—−3.5+6.9−4.7−6.51—99→RECENT2026-08-01
Consumer confidence (OECD, US)
Latest observation is too old to be used
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Credit-card delinquency rateNormal2.85%———−0.10 pp−0.19 pp31—31→LIVE2026-04-01
Consumer loan delinquency rateNormal2.62%———−0.01 pp−0.13 pp28—28→LIVE2026-04-01
Auto loan delinquency rate
Published quarterly in the NY Fed Household Debt and Credit Report (Equifax data) without a stable machine-readable API. Consumer-loan delinquency (Fed) is used instead.
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Household debt service ratioNormal11.11———−0.21 pp−0.01 pp22—22↓LIVE2026-04-01
Personal saving rateSevere4.1%—−0.5 pp−0.3 pp−1.5 pp−1.1 pp8—92→RECENT2026-08-01
Real disposable income, YoYElevated1.3%—−0.2 pp+0.1 pp−0.7 pp−0.4 pp14—86→RECENT2026-08-01