Indicators / Commodities / Energy
Brent crude
Brent crude spot price.
Current
126.55
Observation date 2026-10-14
SevereLIVE
Stress
100
YoY % change (inflation impulse)
Metric: 100.87 · Trend ↑Deteriorating
History
Percentile 99
Z-score —
History since 1987-05-20
Changes
1W +0.4%
1M +4.4%
3M +52.3%
6M +10.1%
12M +100.9%
Chart
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Interpretation & scoring
Direction: Context: oil up can signal inflation pressure (supply shock) or strong demand; oil down can signal weak demand.
Stress metric: YoY % change (inflation impulse) (higher = more stress).
Mapping: indicator-specific thresholds (piecewise linear). Metric values -20.00 → 10.00 → 30.00 → 50.00 → 100.00 map to stress 0 → 50 (Watch) → 75 (Elevated) → 90 (Severe) → 100.
Oil shocks of +30-50% YoY have historically pushed headline inflation up materially.
Contribution to scores
| Score | Category / cluster | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Recession Stress | inflation_energy / energy | 1.3% | 1.3 |
| Inflation Stress | energy / oil | 5.3% | 5.3 |
Sources & timestamps
| Series | Source | ID | Frequency | Last observation | Source last updated | Retrieved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent crude oil spot | U.S. Energy Information Administration (via FRED) | DCOILBRENTEU | Daily | 2026-10-14 | 2026-10-15 20:12 UTC | 2026-10-18 23:09 UTC |