Indicators / Inflation
Core PCE inflation, YoY
Core PCE inflation, YoY. Realised inflation.
Current
3.0%
Observation date 2026-08-01
WatchRECENT
Stress
69
YoY level vs. 2% target
Metric: 3.01 · Trend →Stable
History
Percentile 58
Z-score —
History since 1960-01-01
Changes
1W —
1M +0.0 pp
3M −0.2 pp
6M +0.1 pp
12M +0.2 pp
Chart
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Interpretation & scoring
Direction: Actual (realised) inflation. Higher = more inflation pressure relative to the Fed's 2% (PCE) target.
Stress metric: YoY level vs. 2% target (higher = more stress).
Mapping: indicator-specific thresholds (piecewise linear). Metric values 1.00 → 2.40 → 3.20 → 4.50 → 7.00 map to stress 0 → 50 (Watch) → 75 (Elevated) → 90 (Severe) → 100.
Anchored to the Fed's 2% target: Watch begins modestly above target, Severe at 4.5%+ core.
Contribution to scores
| Score | Category / cluster | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Recession Stress | inflation_energy / core_inflation | 1.3% | 0.9 |
| Inflation Stress | realized / core | 12.0% | 8.3 |
Sources & timestamps
| Series | Source | ID | Frequency | Last observation | Source last updated | Retrieved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core PCE price index | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (via FRED) | PCEPILFE | Monthly | 2026-08-01 | 2026-09-30 12:43 UTC | 2026-10-18 23:09 UTC |