Indicators / Treasury / Yield Curve
10Y–3M spread
10-year minus 3-month Treasury yield.
Current
+0.82 pp
Observation date 2026-10-15
NormalLIVE
Stress
48
Spread level
Metric: 0.82 · Trend →Stable
History
Percentile 31
Z-score -0.57
History since 1981-09-01
Changes
1W −17 bps
1M −7 bps
3M +9 bps
6M +20 bps
12M +80 bps
Chart
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Interpretation & scoring
Direction: Lower / more inverted = historically associated with later recessions, with long and variable lags.
Stress metric: Spread level (lower = more stress).
Mapping: indicator-specific thresholds (piecewise linear). Metric values 2.50 → 0.75 → 0.00 → -0.75 → -1.50 map to stress 0 → 50 (Watch) → 75 (Elevated) → 90 (Severe) → 100.
The 10Y-3M spread is the NY Fed's preferred curve signal; inversion is the key threshold.
Contribution to scores
| Score | Category / cluster | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Recession Stress | curve_rates / inversion | 3.4% | 1.6 |
Sources & timestamps
| Series | Source | ID | Frequency | Last observation | Source last updated | Retrieved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity | Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (via FRED) | DGS10 | Daily | 2026-10-15 | 2026-10-16 20:16 UTC | 2026-10-18 23:08 UTC |
| 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity | Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (via FRED) | DGS3MO | Daily | 2026-10-15 | 2026-10-16 20:16 UTC | 2026-10-18 23:08 UTC |