Indicators / Labor Market
Unemployment rate
U-3 unemployment rate (BLS household survey).
Current
4.2%
Observation date 2026-09-01
NormalLIVE
Stress
25
12-month change (pp)
Metric: -0.20 · Trend ↓Improving
History
Percentile 22
Z-score —
History since 1948-01-01
Changes
1W —
1M +0.1 pp
3M ±0.0 pp
6M −0.1 pp
12M −0.2 pp
Chart
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Interpretation & scoring
Direction: Rising unemployment = deteriorating. The change matters more than the level.
Stress metric: 12-month change (pp) (higher = more stress).
Mapping: indicator-specific thresholds (piecewise linear). Metric values -0.50 → 0.10 → 0.30 → 0.50 → 1.00 map to stress 0 → 50 (Watch) → 75 (Elevated) → 90 (Severe) → 100.
Increases of 0.5pp+ over a year have been rare outside downturns.
Contribution to scores
| Score | Category / cluster | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Recession Stress | growth_labor / unemployment | 3.8% | 0.9 |
Sources & timestamps
| Series | Source | ID | Frequency | Last observation | Source last updated | Retrieved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment rate | U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (via FRED) | UNRATE | Monthly | 2026-09-01 | 2026-10-02 13:24 UTC | 2026-10-18 23:08 UTC |