Indicators / Housing
Housing starts
Housing starts (SAAR). Stress measured on the YoY change.
Current
1,275
Observation date 2026-08-01
WatchRECENT
Stress
56
YoY % change percentile
Metric: -1.24 · Trend ↓Improving
History
Percentile 31
Z-score —
History since 1959-01-01
Changes
1W —
1M −2.6%
3M +7.9%
6M −7.9%
12M −1.2%
Chart
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Interpretation & scoring
Direction: Falling housing activity has historically led broader downturns.
Stress metric: YoY % change percentile (lower = more stress).
Mapping: point-in-time historical percentile of the metric (polarity-adjusted). Signal bands: <50 Normal · 50–75 Watch · 75–90 Elevated · ≥90 Severe.
- yoy pct: -1.24
- three month pct: 7.87
Contribution to scores
| Score | Category / cluster | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Recession Stress | housing / construction | 2.0% | 1.1 |
Sources & timestamps
| Series | Source | ID | Frequency | Last observation | Source last updated | Retrieved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Housing starts | U.S. Census Bureau (via FRED) | HOUST | Monthly | 2026-08-01 | 2026-09-17 12:32 UTC | 2026-10-18 23:09 UTC |