Indicators / Treasury / Yield Curve
10Y term premium (Kim-Wright)
Model-based 10-year term premium from the Federal Reserve Board (Kim-Wright).
Current
1.07%
Observation date 2026-10-09
WatchRECENT
Stress
66
Level percentile
Metric: 1.07 · Trend ↑Deteriorating
History
Percentile 66
Z-score 0.34
History since 1990-01-02
Changes
1W −1 bps
1M +17 bps
3M +29 bps
6M +42 bps
12M +57 bps
Chart
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Interpretation & scoring
Direction: A higher term premium tightens financial conditions (fiscal/supply risk, rate uncertainty). It is a model estimate and is NOT itself a recession signal - weighted lightly.
Stress metric: Level percentile (higher = more stress).
Mapping: point-in-time historical percentile of the metric (polarity-adjusted). Signal bands: <50 Normal · 50–75 Watch · 75–90 Elevated · ≥90 Severe.
Contribution to scores
| Score | Category / cluster | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Recession Stress | curve_rates / term_premium | 1.5% | 1.0 |
| Financial Market Stress | rates / term_premium | 5.0% | 3.3 |
Sources & timestamps
| Series | Source | ID | Frequency | Last observation | Source last updated | Retrieved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-Year term premium (Kim-Wright model) | Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (via FRED) | THREEFYTP10 | Daily | 2026-10-09 | 2026-10-13 19:03 UTC | 2026-10-18 23:08 UTC |