Indicators / Commodities / Energy
WTI crude
WTI crude spot price.
Current
101.91
Observation date 2026-10-14
SevereLIVE
Stress
94
YoY % change (inflation impulse)
Metric: 71.22 · Trend ↑Deteriorating
History
Percentile 95
Z-score —
History since 1986-01-02
Changes
1W +7.3%
1M −0.5%
3M +26.2%
6M +9.5%
12M +71.2%
Chart
Loading…
Interpretation & scoring
Direction: Context: oil up can signal inflation pressure (supply shock) or strong demand; oil down can signal weak demand.
Stress metric: YoY % change (inflation impulse) (higher = more stress).
Mapping: indicator-specific thresholds (piecewise linear). Metric values -20.00 → 10.00 → 30.00 → 50.00 → 100.00 map to stress 0 → 50 (Watch) → 75 (Elevated) → 90 (Severe) → 100.
Oil shocks of +30-50% YoY have historically pushed headline inflation up materially.
Contribution to scores
| Score | Category / cluster | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Recession Stress | inflation_energy / energy | 1.3% | 1.2 |
| Inflation Stress | energy / oil | 5.3% | 4.9 |
Sources & timestamps
| Series | Source | ID | Frequency | Last observation | Source last updated | Retrieved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude oil spot | U.S. Energy Information Administration (via FRED) | DCOILWTICO | Daily | 2026-10-14 | 2026-10-15 20:12 UTC | 2026-10-18 23:09 UTC |