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Indicators / Labor Market

Initial jobless claims

Weekly initial unemployment insurance claims (SA). Stress uses the YoY change of the 4-week average to strip noise and trend growth in the labour force.

Current

199,000
Observation date 2026-10-10
NormalLIVE

Stress

19
YoY % change, 4-week average
Metric: -12.75 · Trend ↓Improving

History

Percentile 3
Z-score —
History since 1967-01-07

Changes

1W +0.5%
1M −3.9%
3M −4.8%
6M −4.3%
12M −14.6%

Chart

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Interpretation & scoring

Direction: Rising claims = more layoffs.

Stress metric: YoY % change, 4-week average (higher = more stress).

Mapping: point-in-time historical percentile of the metric (polarity-adjusted). Signal bands: <50 Normal · 50–75 Watch · 75–90 Elevated · ≥90 Severe.

Contribution to scores

ScoreCategory / clusterWeightPoints
Recession Stressgrowth_labor / claims2.3%0.4

Sources & timestamps

SeriesSourceIDFrequencyLast observationSource last updatedRetrieved
Initial jobless claimsU.S. Employment and Training Administration (via FRED)ICSAWeekly2026-10-102026-10-15 12:36 UTC2026-10-18 23:08 UTC