Indicators / Inflation
CPI inflation, YoY
CPI inflation, YoY. Realised inflation.
Current
3.7%
Observation date 2026-09-01
ElevatedLIVE
Stress
77
YoY level vs. 2% target
Metric: 3.72 · Trend →Stable
History
Percentile 67
Z-score —
History since 1948-01-01
Changes
1W —
1M +0.4 pp
3M +0.3 pp
6M +0.4 pp
12M +0.7 pp
Chart
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Interpretation & scoring
Direction: Actual (realised) inflation. Higher = more inflation pressure relative to the Fed's 2% (PCE) target.
Stress metric: YoY level vs. 2% target (higher = more stress).
Mapping: indicator-specific thresholds (piecewise linear). Metric values 1.00 → 2.50 → 3.50 → 5.00 → 8.00 map to stress 0 → 50 (Watch) → 75 (Elevated) → 90 (Severe) → 100.
Anchored to the Fed's 2% target; headline is allowed more energy-driven volatility.
Contribution to scores
| Score | Category / cluster | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Stress | realized / headline | 8.0% | 6.2 |
Sources & timestamps
| Series | Source | ID | Frequency | Last observation | Source last updated | Retrieved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPI, all items | U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (via FRED) | CPIAUCSL | Monthly | 2026-09-01 | 2026-10-14 13:08 UTC | 2026-10-18 23:09 UTC |