Indicators / Treasury / Yield Curve
US 2Y Treasury yield
US 2Y Treasury yield (constant maturity, H.15).
Current
4.77%
Observation date 2026-10-15
Context indicator (not scored)LIVE
Stress
—
Not scored
Metric: — · Trend ·Context-dependent
History
Percentile 52
Z-score -0.05
History since 1976-06-01
Changes
1W +2 bps
1M +10 bps
3M +61 bps
6M +99 bps
12M +127 bps
Chart
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Interpretation & scoring
Direction: Context-dependent: rising yields can reflect stronger growth, higher inflation expectations or a higher term premium; falling yields can reflect growth fears or expected easing. Not scored as a recession signal on its own.
Not scored: displayed for context only.
Contribution to scores
This indicator does not enter any composite score.
Sources & timestamps
| Series | Source | ID | Frequency | Last observation | Source last updated | Retrieved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity | Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (via FRED) | DGS2 | Daily | 2026-10-15 | 2026-10-16 20:16 UTC | 2026-10-18 23:08 UTC |