Indicators / Labor Market
Average hourly earnings, YoY
Average hourly earnings of all private employees, year-over-year.
Current
3.0%
Observation date 2026-09-01
NormalLIVE
Stress
28
YoY wage growth
Metric: 3.02 · Trend ↓Improving
History
Percentile 51
Z-score —
History since 2007-03-01
Changes
1W —
1M −0.1 pp
3M −0.4 pp
6M −0.4 pp
12M −0.8 pp
Chart
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Interpretation & scoring
Direction: Context: firm wage growth supports consumption but can sustain inflation. Scored only in Inflation Stress.
Stress metric: YoY wage growth (higher = more stress).
Mapping: indicator-specific thresholds (piecewise linear). Metric values 2.00 → 3.80 → 4.50 → 5.50 → 7.00 map to stress 0 → 50 (Watch) → 75 (Elevated) → 90 (Severe) → 100.
Wage growth near 3.5-4% is roughly consistent with 2% inflation given trend productivity.
Contribution to scores
| Score | Category / cluster | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Stress | wages / wages | 10.0% | 2.8 |
Sources & timestamps
| Series | Source | ID | Frequency | Last observation | Source last updated | Retrieved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average hourly earnings, total private | U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (via FRED) | CES0500000003 | Monthly | 2026-09-01 | 2026-10-02 13:26 UTC | 2026-10-18 23:08 UTC |