Indicators / Treasury / Yield Curve
2Y–3M spread (expected policy path)
2-year minus 3-month Treasury yield: proxy for expected short-rate changes.
Current
+0.49 pp
Observation date 2026-10-15
NormalLIVE
Stress
17
Spread level
Metric: 0.49 · Trend ↓Improving
History
Percentile 44
Z-score -0.15
History since 1981-09-01
Changes
1W −3 bps
1M −7 bps
3M +17 bps
6M +41 bps
12M +102 bps
Chart
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Interpretation & scoring
Direction: A 2Y yield well below the 3M bill means markets are pricing rate cuts - often (not always) in response to expected weakness.
Stress metric: Spread level (lower = more stress).
Mapping: indicator-specific thresholds (piecewise linear). Metric values 0.75 → 0.00 → -0.35 → -0.75 → -1.25 map to stress 0 → 50 (Watch) → 75 (Elevated) → 90 (Severe) → 100.
Deeply negative values imply markets expect substantial easing over two years.
Contribution to scores
| Score | Category / cluster | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Recession Stress | curve_rates / easing | 3.8% | 0.7 |
Sources & timestamps
| Series | Source | ID | Frequency | Last observation | Source last updated | Retrieved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity | Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (via FRED) | DGS2 | Daily | 2026-10-15 | 2026-10-16 20:16 UTC | 2026-10-18 23:08 UTC |
| 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity | Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (via FRED) | DGS3MO | Daily | 2026-10-15 | 2026-10-16 20:16 UTC | 2026-10-18 23:08 UTC |