Indicators / Housing
New home sales
New home sales (SAAR). Stress measured on the YoY change.
Current
684
Observation date 2026-08-01
WatchRECENT
Stress
60
YoY % change percentile
Metric: -2.01 · Trend ↑Deteriorating
History
Percentile 62
Z-score —
History since 1963-01-01
Changes
1W —
1M +6.4%
3M +7.5%
6M +18.8%
12M −2.0%
Chart
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Interpretation & scoring
Direction: Falling housing activity has historically led broader downturns.
Stress metric: YoY % change percentile (lower = more stress).
Mapping: point-in-time historical percentile of the metric (polarity-adjusted). Signal bands: <50 Normal · 50–75 Watch · 75–90 Elevated · ≥90 Severe.
- yoy pct: -2.01
- three month pct: 7.55
Contribution to scores
| Score | Category / cluster | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Recession Stress | housing / sales | 2.5% | 1.5 |
Sources & timestamps
| Series | Source | ID | Frequency | Last observation | Source last updated | Retrieved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New one-family houses sold | U.S. Census Bureau (via FRED) | HSN1F | Monthly | 2026-08-01 | 2026-09-24 14:03 UTC | 2026-10-18 23:09 UTC |