Indicators / Manufacturing / Activity
Empire State manufacturing conditions
Empire State manufacturing conditions (regional Federal Reserve survey; freely available proxy for ISM).
Current
25.5
Observation date 2026-10-01
NormalLIVE
Stress
14
3M average level
Metric: 17.90 · Trend ↓Improving
History
Percentile 91
Z-score —
History since 2001-07-01
Changes
1W —
1M +17.9
3M +9.9
6M +14.5
12M +17.7
Chart
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Interpretation & scoring
Direction: Below 0 = more firms reporting declines than increases. Noisy month to month; scored on a 3M average.
Stress metric: 3M average level (lower = more stress).
Mapping: indicator-specific thresholds (piecewise linear). Metric values 25.00 → 0.00 → -10.00 → -20.00 → -35.00 map to stress 0 → 50 (Watch) → 75 (Elevated) → 90 (Severe) → 100.
Zero separates expansion from contraction in regional Fed diffusion indices.
- distance from50: -24.50
- three month trend: 9.90
Contribution to scores
| Score | Category / cluster | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Recession Stress | growth_labor / surveys | 2.3% | 0.3 |
Sources & timestamps
| Series | Source | ID | Frequency | Last observation | Source last updated | Retrieved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing: general business conditions | Federal Reserve Bank of New York (via FRED) | GACDISA066MSFRBNY | Monthly | 2026-10-01 | 2026-10-15 12:32 UTC | 2026-10-18 23:09 UTC |