Indicators / Manufacturing / Activity
Real retail sales, YoY
Real retail and food services sales, YoY.
Current
2.5%
Observation date 2026-09-01
NormalLIVE
Stress
44
YoY percentile
Metric: 2.48 · Trend →Stable
History
Percentile 56
Z-score —
History since 1993-01-01
Changes
1W —
1M +0.3 pp
3M +0.1 pp
6M +2.2 pp
12M +1.8 pp
Chart
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Interpretation & scoring
Direction: Lower = weaker consumer demand for goods.
Stress metric: YoY percentile (lower = more stress).
Mapping: point-in-time historical percentile of the metric (polarity-adjusted). Signal bands: <50 Normal · 50–75 Watch · 75–90 Elevated · ≥90 Severe.
Contribution to scores
| Score | Category / cluster | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Recession Stress | growth_labor / activity | 1.2% | 0.5 |
Sources & timestamps
| Series | Source | ID | Frequency | Last observation | Source last updated | Retrieved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real retail and food services sales | U.S. Census Bureau (via FRED) | RRSFS | Monthly | 2026-09-01 | 2026-10-15 12:42 UTC | 2026-10-18 23:09 UTC |