ISM Manufacturing PMI
ISM Manufacturing PMI. Diffusion index; 50 = no change in activity versus prior month.
Current
Stress
History
Changes
Why this is unavailable
ISM Manufacturing PMI: proprietary series not loaded (ISM data is proprietary and is not redistributed by FRED. Load via POST /api/recession/manual if licensed.)
No value is estimated or substituted. Its weight is redistributed within its cluster/category and the score's coverage is reduced accordingly.
Chart
Interpretation & scoring
Direction: Lower = weaker activity. Below 50 signals contraction in the survey, not necessarily recession.
Stress metric: Level vs. 50 (lower = more stress).
Mapping: indicator-specific thresholds (piecewise linear). Metric values 58.00 → 51.00 → 48.00 → 45.00 → 40.00 map to stress 0 → 50 (Watch) → 75 (Elevated) → 90 (Severe) → 100.
50 separates expansion from contraction in the survey, but readings of 45-50 have frequently occurred without recession, so the Watch band starts just above 50 and Severe only below 45.
Contribution to scores
| Score | Category / cluster | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Recession Stress | growth_labor / surveys | 0.0% | 0.0 |
Sources & timestamps
| Series | Source | ID | Frequency | Last observation | Source last updated | Retrieved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ISM Manufacturing PMI | Institute for Supply Management (licensed, manual load) | ISM_MFG_PMI | Monthly | — | not provided | — |