Indicators / Manufacturing / Activity
Real GDP growth (q/q SAAR)
Real GDP, percent change from preceding quarter, SAAR.
Current
2.2%
Observation date 2026-04-01
NormalLIVE
Stress
36
Growth level
Metric: 2.20 · Trend ↓Improving
History
Percentile 35
Z-score —
History since 1947-04-01
Changes
1W —
1M —
3M —
6M +2.0 pp
12M −1.8 pp
Chart
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Interpretation & scoring
Direction: Lower = weaker growth. Single quarters are noisy and revised.
Stress metric: Growth level (lower = more stress).
Mapping: indicator-specific thresholds (piecewise linear). Metric values 4.00 → 1.50 → 0.50 → -0.50 → -3.00 map to stress 0 → 50 (Watch) → 75 (Elevated) → 90 (Severe) → 100.
Trend growth is ~1.8-2%; sub-1% growth has typically accompanied slowdowns.
Contribution to scores
| Score | Category / cluster | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Recession Stress | growth_labor / activity | 1.2% | 0.4 |
Sources & timestamps
| Series | Source | ID | Frequency | Last observation | Source last updated | Retrieved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP growth (q/q annualised) | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (via FRED) | A191RL1Q225SBEA | Quarterly | 2026-04-01 | 2026-09-30 12:59 UTC | 2026-10-18 23:09 UTC |