Indicators / Housing
Existing home sales
Existing home sales (SAAR). Stress measured on the YoY change.
Current
3,990,000
Observation date 2026-09-01
n/aLIVE
Stress
—
YoY % change percentile
Metric: -2.21 · Trend –Unknown
History
Percentile 12
Z-score —
History since 2025-09-01
Short history (1.0y): percentiles are less reliable.
Changes
1W —
1M +1.5%
3M −3.4%
6M −0.5%
12M −2.2%
Chart
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Interpretation & scoring
Direction: Falling housing activity has historically led broader downturns.
Stress metric: YoY % change percentile (lower = more stress).
Mapping: point-in-time historical percentile of the metric (polarity-adjusted). Signal bands: <50 Normal · 50–75 Watch · 75–90 Elevated · ≥90 Severe.
- yoy pct: -2.21
- three month pct: -3.39
Contribution to scores
| Score | Category / cluster | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Recession Stress | housing / sales | 0.0% | 0.0 |
Sources & timestamps
| Series | Source | ID | Frequency | Last observation | Source last updated | Retrieved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Existing home sales | National Association of Realtors (via FRED) | EXHOSLUSM495S | Monthly | 2026-09-01 | 2026-10-13 14:07 UTC | 2026-10-18 23:09 UTC |