Indicators / Labor Market
Payroll growth, 3-month average
3-month moving average of monthly payroll changes (thousands).
Current
+51k
Observation date 2026-09-01
ElevatedLIVE
Stress
75
3M avg percentile
Metric: 50.67 · Trend →Stable
History
Percentile 25
Z-score —
History since 1939-04-01
Changes
1W —
1M −1k
3M −30k
6M −22k
12M +27k
Chart
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Interpretation & scoring
Direction: Lower = weaker hiring. Breakeven job growth varies with labour-force growth.
Stress metric: 3M avg percentile (lower = more stress).
Mapping: point-in-time historical percentile of the metric (polarity-adjusted). Signal bands: <50 Normal · 50–75 Watch · 75–90 Elevated · ≥90 Severe.
Contribution to scores
| Score | Category / cluster | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Recession Stress | growth_labor / payrolls | 4.5% | 3.4 |
Sources & timestamps
| Series | Source | ID | Frequency | Last observation | Source last updated | Retrieved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nonfarm payrolls | U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (via FRED) | PAYEMS | Monthly | 2026-09-01 | 2026-10-02 13:24 UTC | 2026-10-18 23:08 UTC |