Indicators / Manufacturing / Activity
Real personal consumption, YoY
Real PCE, YoY.
Current
2.6%
Observation date 2026-08-01
NormalRECENT
Stress
36
YoY percentile
Metric: 2.57 · Trend →Stable
History
Percentile 64
Z-score —
History since 2008-01-01
Changes
1W —
1M +0.3 pp
3M −0.1 pp
6M +0.5 pp
12M −0.3 pp
Chart
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Interpretation & scoring
Direction: Lower = weaker consumption (~2/3 of GDP).
Stress metric: YoY percentile (lower = more stress).
Mapping: point-in-time historical percentile of the metric (polarity-adjusted). Signal bands: <50 Normal · 50–75 Watch · 75–90 Elevated · ≥90 Severe.
Contribution to scores
| Score | Category / cluster | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Recession Stress | growth_labor / activity | 1.2% | 0.4 |
Sources & timestamps
| Series | Source | ID | Frequency | Last observation | Source last updated | Retrieved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real personal consumption expenditures | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (via FRED) | PCEC96 | Monthly | 2026-08-01 | 2026-09-30 12:43 UTC | 2026-10-18 23:09 UTC |