Indicators / Credit Stress
US High Yield OAS
US High Yield OAS (option-adjusted / yield spread over Treasuries).
Current
3.23%
Observation date 2026-10-15
WatchLIVE
Stress
75
Spread level percentile
Metric: 3.23 · Trend ↑Deteriorating
History
Percentile 75
12M percentile 96
Z-score 0.37
History since 2023-10-17
Short history (3.0y): percentiles are less reliable.
Changes
1W +8 bps
1M +47 bps
3M +52 bps
6M +37 bps
12M +28 bps
Chart
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Interpretation & scoring
Direction: Wider spreads = investors demand more compensation for default risk.
Stress metric: Spread level percentile (higher = more stress).
Mapping: point-in-time historical percentile of the metric (polarity-adjusted). Signal bands: <50 Normal · 50–75 Watch · 75–90 Elevated · ≥90 Severe.
- widening bps3m: 52.00
Contribution to scores
| Score | Category / cluster | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Recession Stress | credit_financial / high_yield | 2.5% | 1.9 |
| Financial Market Stress | credit / high_yield | 7.0% | 5.2 |
Sources & timestamps
| Series | Source | ID | Frequency | Last observation | Source last updated | Retrieved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ICE BofA US High Yield OAS | ICE Data Indices, LLC (via FRED) | BAMLH0A0HYM2 | Daily | 2026-10-15 | 2026-10-16 13:59 UTC | 2026-10-18 23:08 UTC |