Indicators / Housing
30Y fixed mortgage rate
Freddie Mac PMMS 30-year fixed rate.
Current
7.40%
Observation date 2026-10-15
ElevatedLIVE
Stress
86
12M change percentile
Metric: 1.10 · Trend ↑Deteriorating
History
Percentile 52
Z-score -0.09
History since 1971-04-02
Changes
1W ±0 bps
1M +64 bps
3M +85 bps
6M +110 bps
12M +110 bps
Chart
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Interpretation & scoring
Direction: Higher mortgage rates reduce affordability. Stress is measured on the 12-month change (rate shock) because the level's long history is dominated by the 1980s.
Stress metric: 12M change percentile (higher = more stress).
Mapping: point-in-time historical percentile of the metric (polarity-adjusted). Signal bands: <50 Normal · 50–75 Watch · 75–90 Elevated · ≥90 Severe.
Contribution to scores
| Score | Category / cluster | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Recession Stress | housing / affordability | 2.0% | 1.7 |
Sources & timestamps
| Series | Source | ID | Frequency | Last observation | Source last updated | Retrieved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-year fixed mortgage rate | Freddie Mac (via FRED) | MORTGAGE30US | Weekly | 2026-10-15 | 2026-10-15 16:02 UTC | 2026-10-18 23:09 UTC |