Indicators / Housing
Building permits
Building permits (SAAR). Stress measured on the YoY change.
Current
1,403
Observation date 2026-08-01
NormalRECENT
Stress
48
YoY % change percentile
Metric: 4.16 · Trend ↓Improving
History
Percentile 53
Z-score —
History since 1960-01-01
Changes
1W —
1M −2.1%
3M −0.5%
6M +0.7%
12M +4.2%
Chart
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Interpretation & scoring
Direction: Falling housing activity has historically led broader downturns.
Stress metric: YoY % change percentile (lower = more stress).
Mapping: point-in-time historical percentile of the metric (polarity-adjusted). Signal bands: <50 Normal · 50–75 Watch · 75–90 Elevated · ≥90 Severe.
- yoy pct: 4.16
- three month pct: -0.50
Contribution to scores
| Score | Category / cluster | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Recession Stress | housing / construction | 2.0% | 1.0 |
Sources & timestamps
| Series | Source | ID | Frequency | Last observation | Source last updated | Retrieved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Building permits | U.S. Census Bureau (via FRED) | PERMIT | Monthly | 2026-08-01 | 2026-09-24 14:03 UTC | 2026-10-18 23:09 UTC |