Indicators / Manufacturing / Activity
Industrial production, YoY
Industrial production index, year-over-year % change.
Current
2.2%
Observation date 2026-09-01
WatchLIVE
Stress
57
YoY percentile
Metric: 2.25 · Trend ↓Improving
History
Percentile 43
Z-score —
History since 1920-01-01
Changes
1W —
1M +0.6 pp
3M +0.8 pp
6M +1.6 pp
12M +0.4 pp
Chart
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Interpretation & scoring
Direction: Lower = weaker output.
Stress metric: YoY percentile (lower = more stress).
Mapping: point-in-time historical percentile of the metric (polarity-adjusted). Signal bands: <50 Normal · 50–75 Watch · 75–90 Elevated · ≥90 Severe.
Contribution to scores
| Score | Category / cluster | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Recession Stress | growth_labor / activity | 1.2% | 0.7 |
Sources & timestamps
| Series | Source | ID | Frequency | Last observation | Source last updated | Retrieved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial production index | Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (via FRED) | INDPRO | Monthly | 2026-09-01 | 2026-10-16 13:20 UTC | 2026-10-18 23:09 UTC |