Indicators / Treasury / Yield Curve
10Y–2Y spread
10-year minus 2-year Treasury yield.
Current
+0.33 pp
Observation date 2026-10-15
WatchLIVE
Stress
59
Spread level
Metric: 0.33 · Trend →Stable
History
Percentile 32
Z-score -0.56
History since 1976-06-01
Changes
1W −14 bps
1M ±0 bps
3M −8 bps
6M −21 bps
12M −22 bps
Chart
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Interpretation & scoring
Direction: Lower / more inverted = historically associated with later recessions, with long and variable lags.
Stress metric: Spread level (lower = more stress).
Mapping: indicator-specific thresholds (piecewise linear). Metric values 2.00 → 0.50 → 0.00 → -0.50 → -1.00 map to stress 0 → 50 (Watch) → 75 (Elevated) → 90 (Severe) → 100.
Inversion (below 0) has preceded most post-war recessions, but with 6-24 month lags and at least one false signal.
Contribution to scores
| Score | Category / cluster | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Recession Stress | curve_rates / inversion | 3.4% | 2.0 |
Sources & timestamps
| Series | Source | ID | Frequency | Last observation | Source last updated | Retrieved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity | Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (via FRED) | DGS10 | Daily | 2026-10-15 | 2026-10-16 20:16 UTC | 2026-10-18 23:08 UTC |
| 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity | Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (via FRED) | DGS2 | Daily | 2026-10-15 | 2026-10-16 20:16 UTC | 2026-10-18 23:08 UTC |