Indicators / Credit Stress
Baa – 10Y Treasury spread
Baa – 10Y Treasury spread (option-adjusted / yield spread over Treasuries).
Current
1.44%
Observation date 2026-10-15
NormalLIVE
Stress
2
Spread level percentile
Metric: 1.44 · Trend ↓Improving
History
Percentile 2
12M percentile 3
Z-score -1.19
History since 1986-01-02
Changes
1W −4 bps
1M −4 bps
3M −15 bps
6M −27 bps
12M −24 bps
Chart
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Interpretation & scoring
Direction: Wider spreads = investors demand more compensation for default risk.
Stress metric: Spread level percentile (higher = more stress).
Mapping: point-in-time historical percentile of the metric (polarity-adjusted). Signal bands: <50 Normal · 50–75 Watch · 75–90 Elevated · ≥90 Severe.
- widening bps3m: -15.00
Contribution to scores
| Score | Category / cluster | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Recession Stress | credit_financial / investment_grade | 1.7% | 0.0 |
| Financial Market Stress | credit / investment_grade | 4.7% | 0.1 |
Sources & timestamps
| Series | Source | ID | Frequency | Last observation | Source last updated | Retrieved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moody's Baa corporate yield minus 10Y Treasury | Moody's (via FRED) | BAA10Y | Daily | 2026-10-15 | 2026-10-16 21:03 UTC | 2026-10-18 23:08 UTC |