Historical comparison
Today's conditions (average of the last 3 months) versus five fixed reference periods, using the same point-in-time methodology. All periods are always shown; the goal is to see similarities and differences, not to declare that today 'is' any past episode.
Stress profile by period (period averages)
| Dimension | Current 2026-06 → 2026-09 | 2000–01 2000-03 → 2001-11 | 2007–09 2007-06 → 2009-06 | 2019–20 2019-06 → 2020-06 | 2022 2022-01 → 2022-12 | 2023–24 2023-01 → 2024-12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recession Stress | 46 | 60 | 71 | 46 | 45 | 58 |
| Inflation Stress | 60 | 46 | 40 | 20 | 85 | 57 |
| Financial Market Stress | 33 | 75 | 78 | 51 | 61 | 36 |
| Overall Macro Stress | 46 | 60 | 65 | 41 | 59 | 52 |
| Labor | 45 | 61 | 82 | 53 | 9 | 57 |
| Manufacturing / Activity | 36 | 60 | 72 | 52 | 45 | 57 |
| Credit | 34 | 72 | 81 | 46 | 45 | 50 |
| Housing | 62 | 44 | 84 | 36 | 74 | 65 |
| Yield curve | 54 | 51 | 31 | 59 | 44 | 84 |
| Consumer | 60 | 51 | 78 | 30 | 51 | 46 |
| Equities | 37 | 89 | 79 | 50 | 84 | 36 |
| Model coverage | 85% | 73% | 78% | 83% | 84% | 85% |
| Distance from today | — | 29 | 34 | 21 | 24 | 15 |
All five reference periods are always shown, including dissimilar ones. Distance is the root-mean-square difference across category stress scores (lower = more similar on these dimensions only). Similarity on these dimensions does not imply similar outcomes; historical averages use revised data.
2000–01 (dot-com bust)
distance 29Similar (within 10 pts)
- Yield curve: 54 now vs 51 then
- Consumer: 60 now vs 51 then
Different
- Equities: 37 now vs 89 then (lower today)
- Financial Market Stress: 33 now vs 75 then (lower today)
- Credit: 34 now vs 72 then (lower today)
- Manufacturing / Activity: 36 now vs 60 then (lower today)
- Housing: 62 now vs 44 then (higher today)
- Labor: 45 now vs 61 then (lower today)
- Inflation Stress: 60 now vs 46 then (higher today)
2007–09 (global financial crisis)
distance 34Similar (within 10 pts)
- None
Different
- Credit: 34 now vs 81 then (lower today)
- Financial Market Stress: 33 now vs 78 then (lower today)
- Equities: 37 now vs 79 then (lower today)
- Labor: 45 now vs 82 then (lower today)
- Manufacturing / Activity: 36 now vs 72 then (lower today)
- Yield curve: 54 now vs 31 then (higher today)
- Housing: 62 now vs 84 then (lower today)
- Inflation Stress: 60 now vs 40 then (higher today)
- Consumer: 60 now vs 78 then (lower today)
2019–20 (late cycle → pandemic)
distance 21Similar (within 10 pts)
- Labor: 45 now vs 53 then
- Yield curve: 54 now vs 59 then
Different
- Inflation Stress: 60 now vs 20 then (higher today)
- Consumer: 60 now vs 30 then (higher today)
- Housing: 62 now vs 36 then (higher today)
- Financial Market Stress: 33 now vs 51 then (lower today)
- Manufacturing / Activity: 36 now vs 52 then (lower today)
- Equities: 37 now vs 50 then (lower today)
- Credit: 34 now vs 46 then (lower today)
2022 (inflation shock)
distance 24Similar (within 10 pts)
- Manufacturing / Activity: 36 now vs 45 then
- Yield curve: 54 now vs 44 then
- Consumer: 60 now vs 51 then
Different
- Equities: 37 now vs 84 then (lower today)
- Labor: 45 now vs 9 then (higher today)
- Financial Market Stress: 33 now vs 61 then (lower today)
- Inflation Stress: 60 now vs 85 then (lower today)
- Housing: 62 now vs 74 then (lower today)
- Credit: 34 now vs 45 then (lower today)
2023–24 (disinflation, inverted curve)
distance 15Similar (within 10 pts)
- Inflation Stress: 60 now vs 57 then
- Financial Market Stress: 33 now vs 36 then
- Housing: 62 now vs 65 then
- Equities: 37 now vs 36 then
Different
- Yield curve: 54 now vs 84 then (lower today)
- Manufacturing / Activity: 36 now vs 57 then (lower today)
- Credit: 34 now vs 50 then (lower today)
- Consumer: 60 now vs 46 then (higher today)
- Labor: 45 now vs 57 then (lower today)
Key indicators (period averages)
| Indicator | Current | 2000–01 | 2007–09 | 2019–20 | 2022 | 2023–24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment rate | 4.2% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 3.8% |
| Sahm Rule indicator | +0.03 pp | +0.26 pp | +1.21 pp | +0.87 pp | −0.07 pp | +0.24 pp |
| Payroll growth, 3-month average | +75k | +47k | −232k | −938k | +450k | +169k |
| Initial jobless claims | 201,750 | 354,476 | 442,080 | 958,692 | 214,167 | 221,875 |
| 10Y–3M spread | +0.80 pp | +0.70 pp | +1.98 pp | +0.15 pp | +0.79 pp | −1.12 pp |
| 10Y–2Y spread | +0.37 pp | +0.50 pp | +1.47 pp | +0.27 pp | −0.09 pp | −0.38 pp |
| US 10Y Treasury yield | 4.76% | 5.43% | 3.74% | 1.39% | 3.00% | 4.11% |
| US 2Y Treasury yield | 4.39% | 4.93% | 2.27% | 1.12% | 3.09% | 4.49% |
| Effective Fed Funds rate | 3.69% | 5.13% | 2.23% | 1.32% | 1.85% | 5.08% |
| Baa – 10Y Treasury spread | 1.55% | 2.72% | 3.63% | 2.52% | 2.14% | 1.71% |
| US High Yield OAS | 2.83% | — | — | — | — | 3.26% |
| Chicago Fed NFCI | -0.53 | -0.23 | 1.02 | -0.39 | -0.27 | -0.34 |
| VIX | 16.3 | 24.6 | 30.4 | 23.7 | 25.9 | 15.8 |
| Core CPI inflation, YoY | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 6.1% | 4.2% |
| CPI inflation, YoY | 3.6% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 8.1% | 3.7% |
| 10Y breakeven inflation | 2.29% | — | 1.86% | 1.47% | 2.50% | 2.28% |
| Industrial production, YoY | 1.5% | 0.6% | -3.6% | -4.2% | 2.0% | -0.5% |
| Housing starts | 1,301 | 1,585 | 945 | 1,312 | 1,585 | 1,387 |
| UMich consumer sentiment | 50.3 | 98.9 | 69.5 | 92.7 | 59.9 | 68.4 |
| 30Y fixed mortgage rate | 6.66% | 7.45% | 5.88% | 3.58% | 5.40% | 6.74% |
“—” means the series did not exist yet or was unavailable in that period (e.g. FRED's ICE credit spreads cover only recent years; the Baa spread is the long-history credit proxy).