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Settings & data sources

Model weights, environment configuration (secrets are never displayed) and per-series retrieval status.

Model weights

Category weights are relative (they are normalised to 100%). Changes apply to every page in this browser via a cookie; defaults are the initial, judgement-based weights (Recession: 30/25/15/10/10/5/5).

Recession Stress

Inflation Stress

Financial Market Stress

Overall Macro Stress mix

Environment

Data modelive
FRED_API_KEYconfigured
TWELVE_DATA_API_KEYconfigured gold, Russell 2000 proxy
DATABASE_URLconfigured store: postgres
CRON_SECRETconfigured
ADMIN_TOKENnot set
ALERT_WEBHOOK_URLnot set
MODEL_CONFIG_OVERRIDESnot set

Copy .env.example to .env.local. Keys are read server-side only and never sent to the browser.

Loading proprietary data (optional)

ISM indices are proprietary and are not redistributed by FRED. If you hold a licence, load them via the authenticated endpoint (requires ADMIN_TOKEN):

curl -X POST $HOST/api/recession/manual \
  -H "x-admin-token: $ADMIN_TOKEN" -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"seriesKey":"ISM_MFG_PMI","observations":[{"date":"2026-08-01","value":49.1}]}'

Accepted keys: ISM_MFG_PMI, ISM_MFG_NO, ISM_MFG_EMP, ISM_SVC_PMI, ISM_SVC_NO.

Series retrieval status

SeriesSourceIDFreq.StatusLast observationSource updatedRetrievedObs
30-Year Treasury Constant MaturityBoard of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (via FRED)DGS30Dok2026-10-152026-10-16 20:16 UTC2026-10-18 23:08 UTC12412
10-Year Treasury Constant MaturityBoard of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (via FRED)DGS10Dok2026-10-152026-10-16 20:16 UTC2026-10-18 23:08 UTC16182
5-Year Treasury Constant MaturityBoard of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (via FRED)DGS5Dok2026-10-152026-10-16 20:16 UTC2026-10-18 23:08 UTC16182
2-Year Treasury Constant MaturityBoard of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (via FRED)DGS2Dok2026-10-152026-10-16 20:16 UTC2026-10-18 23:08 UTC12590
3-Month Treasury Constant MaturityBoard of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (via FRED)DGS3MODok2026-10-152026-10-16 20:16 UTC2026-10-18 23:08 UTC11280
Effective Federal Funds RateFederal Reserve Bank of New York (via FRED)DFFDok2026-10-152026-10-16 20:16 UTC2026-10-18 23:08 UTC26405
10-Year TIPS (real) yieldBoard of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (via FRED)DFII10Dok2026-10-152026-10-16 20:16 UTC2026-10-18 23:08 UTC5951
10-Year term premium (Kim-Wright model)Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (via FRED)THREEFYTP10Dok2026-10-092026-10-13 19:03 UTC2026-10-18 23:08 UTC9180
5-Year breakeven inflationFederal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (via FRED)T5YIEDok2026-10-162026-10-16 21:03 UTC2026-10-18 23:08 UTC5952
10-Year breakeven inflationFederal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (via FRED)T10YIEDok2026-10-162026-10-16 21:03 UTC2026-10-18 23:08 UTC5952
ICE BofA US High Yield OASICE Data Indices, LLC (via FRED)BAMLH0A0HYM2Dok2026-10-152026-10-16 13:59 UTC2026-10-18 23:08 UTC786
ICE BofA US Corporate (IG) OASICE Data Indices, LLC (via FRED)BAMLC0A0CMDok2026-10-152026-10-16 13:58 UTC2026-10-18 23:08 UTC785
ICE BofA BBB US Corporate OASICE Data Indices, LLC (via FRED)BAMLC0A4CBBBDok2026-10-152026-10-16 13:58 UTC2026-10-18 23:08 UTC786
ICE BofA CCC & Lower US High Yield OASICE Data Indices, LLC (via FRED)BAMLH0A3HYCDok2026-10-152026-10-16 13:58 UTC2026-10-18 23:08 UTC786
Moody's Baa corporate yield minus 10Y TreasuryMoody's (via FRED)BAA10YDok2026-10-152026-10-16 21:03 UTC2026-10-18 23:08 UTC10197
Unemployment rateU.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (via FRED)UNRATEMok2026-09-012026-10-02 13:24 UTC2026-10-18 23:08 UTC944
Initial jobless claimsU.S. Employment and Training Administration (via FRED)ICSAWok2026-10-102026-10-15 12:36 UTC2026-10-18 23:08 UTC3119
Continuing claimsU.S. Employment and Training Administration (via FRED)CCSAWok2026-10-032026-10-15 12:35 UTC2026-10-18 23:08 UTC3118
Total nonfarm payrollsU.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (via FRED)PAYEMSMok2026-09-012026-10-02 13:24 UTC2026-10-18 23:08 UTC1053
Average hourly earnings, total privateU.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (via FRED)CES0500000003Mok2026-09-012026-10-02 13:26 UTC2026-10-18 23:08 UTC247
JOLTS job openingsU.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (via FRED)JTSJOLMok2026-08-012026-09-29 14:11 UTC2026-10-18 23:09 UTC309
JOLTS quits rateU.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (via FRED)JTSQURMok2026-08-012026-09-29 14:11 UTC2026-10-18 23:09 UTC309
ISM Manufacturing PMIInstitute for Supply Management (licensed, manual load)ISM_MFG_PMIMnot loaded (proprietary)———0
ISM Manufacturing New OrdersInstitute for Supply Management (licensed, manual load)ISM_MFG_NOMnot loaded (proprietary)———0
ISM Manufacturing EmploymentInstitute for Supply Management (licensed, manual load)ISM_MFG_EMPMnot loaded (proprietary)———0
ISM Services PMIInstitute for Supply Management (licensed, manual load)ISM_SVC_PMIMnot loaded (proprietary)———0
ISM Services New OrdersInstitute for Supply Management (licensed, manual load)ISM_SVC_NOMnot loaded (proprietary)———0
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing: current general activityFederal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia (via FRED)GACDFSA066MSFRBPHIMok2026-10-012026-10-15 12:48 UTC2026-10-18 23:09 UTC702
NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing: general business conditionsFederal Reserve Bank of New York (via FRED)GACDISA066MSFRBNYMok2026-10-012026-10-15 12:32 UTC2026-10-18 23:09 UTC304
Industrial production indexBoard of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (via FRED)INDPROMok2026-09-012026-10-16 13:20 UTC2026-10-18 23:09 UTC1293
Real retail and food services salesU.S. Census Bureau (via FRED)RRSFSMok2026-09-012026-10-15 12:42 UTC2026-10-18 23:09 UTC416
Real personal consumption expendituresU.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (via FRED)PCEC96Mok2026-08-012026-09-30 12:43 UTC2026-10-18 23:09 UTC236
Real GDP growth (q/q annualised)U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (via FRED)A191RL1Q225SBEAQok2026-04-012026-09-30 12:59 UTC2026-10-18 23:09 UTC317
Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimateFederal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (via FRED)GDPNOWQok2026-07-012026-10-15 16:02 UTC2026-10-18 23:09 UTC61
Housing startsU.S. Census Bureau (via FRED)HOUSTMok2026-08-012026-09-17 12:32 UTC2026-10-18 23:09 UTC812
Building permitsU.S. Census Bureau (via FRED)PERMITMok2026-08-012026-09-24 14:03 UTC2026-10-18 23:09 UTC800
Existing home salesNational Association of Realtors (via FRED)EXHOSLUSM495SMok2026-09-012026-10-13 14:07 UTC2026-10-18 23:09 UTC13
New one-family houses soldU.S. Census Bureau (via FRED)HSN1FMok2026-08-012026-09-24 14:03 UTC2026-10-18 23:09 UTC764
Housing affordability index (fixed)National Association of Realtors (via FRED)FIXHAIMok2026-09-012026-10-13 14:35 UTC2026-10-18 23:09 UTC12
30-year fixed mortgage rateFreddie Mac (via FRED)MORTGAGE30USWok2026-10-152026-10-15 16:02 UTC2026-10-18 23:09 UTC2899
Monthly supply of new housesU.S. Census Bureau (via FRED)MSACSRMok2026-08-012026-09-24 14:03 UTC2026-10-18 23:09 UTC764
Active housing listingsRealtor.com (via FRED)ACTLISCOUUSMok2026-09-012026-10-02 00:15 UTC2026-10-18 23:09 UTC123
CPI, all itemsU.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (via FRED)CPIAUCSLMok2026-09-012026-10-14 13:08 UTC2026-10-18 23:09 UTC956
Core CPI (ex food & energy)U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (via FRED)CPILFESLMok2026-09-012026-10-14 13:08 UTC2026-10-18 23:09 UTC836
PCE price indexU.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (via FRED)PCEPIMok2026-08-012026-09-30 12:43 UTC2026-10-18 23:09 UTC812
Core PCE price indexU.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (via FRED)PCEPILFEMok2026-08-012026-09-30 12:43 UTC2026-10-18 23:09 UTC812
UMich 1-year inflation expectationsUniversity of Michigan (via FRED)MICHMok2026-08-012026-09-25 15:02 UTC2026-10-18 23:09 UTC584
WTI crude oil spotU.S. Energy Information Administration (via FRED)DCOILWTICODok2026-10-142026-10-15 20:12 UTC2026-10-18 23:09 UTC9523
Brent crude oil spotU.S. Energy Information Administration (via FRED)DCOILBRENTEUDok2026-10-142026-10-15 20:12 UTC2026-10-18 23:09 UTC9108
Henry Hub natural gas spotU.S. Energy Information Administration (via FRED)DHHNGSPDok2026-10-142026-10-15 20:14 UTC2026-10-18 23:09 UTC5708
Global copper priceInternational Monetary Fund (via FRED)PCOPPUSDMMok2026-07-012026-08-17 18:51 UTC2026-10-18 23:09 UTC415
Gold spot (XAU/USD)Twelve Data (market data API)XAU/USDDok2026-10-17—2026-10-18 23:09 UTC4997
S&P 500 indexS&P Dow Jones Indices (via FRED)SP500Dok2026-10-162026-10-17 00:02 UTC2026-10-18 23:09 UTC2514
Nasdaq-100 indexNasdaq (via FRED)NASDAQ100Dok2026-10-152026-10-16 03:37 UTC2026-10-18 23:09 UTC10278
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)Chicago Board Options Exchange (via FRED)VIXCLSDok2026-10-152026-10-16 13:37 UTC2026-10-18 23:09 UTC9296
Russell 2000 (iShares IWM ETF proxy)Twelve Data (market data API)IWMDok2026-10-16—2026-10-18 23:09 UTC5000
Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions IndexFederal Reserve Bank of Chicago (via FRED)NFCIWok2026-10-092026-10-15 12:36 UTC2026-10-18 23:09 UTC2910
Chicago Fed Adjusted NFCIFederal Reserve Bank of Chicago (via FRED)ANFCIWok2026-10-092026-10-15 12:35 UTC2026-10-18 23:09 UTC2910
Nominal broad U.S. dollar indexBoard of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (via FRED)DTWEXBGSDok2026-10-092026-10-13 20:17 UTC2026-10-18 23:09 UTC5208
SLOOS: net % of banks tightening C&I standards (large/mid firms)Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (via FRED)DRTSCILMQok2026-07-012026-08-03 18:01 UTC2026-10-18 23:09 UTC146
UMich consumer sentimentUniversity of Michigan (via FRED)UMCSENTMok2026-08-012026-09-25 15:02 UTC2026-10-18 23:09 UTC676
OECD consumer confidence (US, amplitude adjusted)OECD (via FRED)CSCICP03USM665SMok2024-01-012025-11-17 20:44 UTC2026-10-18 23:09 UTC769
Credit card delinquency rate (all commercial banks)Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (via FRED)DRCCLACBSQok2026-04-012026-08-25 19:17 UTC2026-10-18 23:09 UTC142
Consumer loan delinquency rate (all commercial banks)Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (via FRED)DRCLACBSQok2026-04-012026-08-25 19:18 UTC2026-10-18 23:09 UTC158
Household debt service ratioBoard of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (via FRED)TDSPQok2026-04-012026-09-22 19:31 UTC2026-10-18 23:09 UTC86
Personal saving rateU.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (via FRED)PSAVERTMok2026-08-012026-09-30 12:43 UTC2026-10-18 23:09 UTC812
Real disposable personal incomeU.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (via FRED)DSPIC96Mok2026-08-012026-09-30 12:43 UTC2026-10-18 23:09 UTC812