Indicators / Credit Stress
HY OAS rate of widening (3M)
3-month change in the high-yield OAS, basis points.
Current
52 bps
Observation date 2026-10-15
WatchLIVE
Stress
64
3M widening
Metric: 52.00 · Trend ↑Deteriorating
History
Percentile 93
Z-score —
History since 2024-01-16
Short history (2.7y): percentiles are less reliable.
Changes
1W +7 bps
1M +47 bps
3M +67 bps
6M +37 bps
12M +57 bps
Chart
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Interpretation & scoring
Direction: Rapid widening often matters more than the level.
Stress metric: 3M widening (higher = more stress).
Mapping: indicator-specific thresholds (piecewise linear). Metric values -100.00 → 25.00 → 75.00 → 150.00 → 300.00 map to stress 0 → 50 (Watch) → 75 (Elevated) → 90 (Severe) → 100.
Historical stress episodes feature 3M widening of 100-300+ bps; absolute anchors are used because FRED's ICE history is short.
Contribution to scores
| Score | Category / cluster | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Recession Stress | credit_financial / high_yield | 2.5% | 1.6 |
| Financial Market Stress | credit / high_yield | 7.0% | 4.4 |
Sources & timestamps
| Series | Source | ID | Frequency | Last observation | Source last updated | Retrieved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ICE BofA US High Yield OAS | ICE Data Indices, LLC (via FRED) | BAMLH0A0HYM2 | Daily | 2026-10-15 | 2026-10-16 13:59 UTC | 2026-10-18 23:08 UTC |