10Y–3M deepest inversion (trailing 24M)

Direction: Recessions have historically begun after the curve re-steepens, so the depth of a recent inversion is kept in view for 24 months.

Stress metric: Minimum spread, trailing 24 months (lower = more stress).

Mapping: indicator-specific thresholds (piecewise linear). Metric values 1.00 → 0.00 → -0.50 → -1.00 → -1.50 map to stress 0 → 50 (Watch) → 75 (Elevated) → 90 (Severe) → 100.

Captures that curve signals operate with long lags; decays after 24 months.