Indicators / Credit Stress
CCC & lower OAS
CCC & lower OAS (option-adjusted / yield spread over Treasuries).
Current
12.78%
Observation date 2026-10-15
SevereLIVE
Stress
100
Spread level percentile
Metric: 12.78 · Trend ↑Deteriorating
History
Percentile 100
12M percentile 99
Z-score 3.80
History since 2023-10-17
Short history (3.0y): percentiles are less reliable.
Changes
1W +26 bps
1M +193 bps
3M +308 bps
6M +357 bps
12M +431 bps
Chart
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Interpretation & scoring
Direction: Wider spreads = investors demand more compensation for default risk.
Stress metric: Spread level percentile (higher = more stress).
Mapping: point-in-time historical percentile of the metric (polarity-adjusted). Signal bands: <50 Normal · 50–75 Watch · 75–90 Elevated · ≥90 Severe.
- widening bps3m: 308.00
Contribution to scores
| Score | Category / cluster | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Recession Stress | credit_financial / high_yield | 2.5% | 2.5 |
| Financial Market Stress | credit / high_yield | 7.0% | 7.0 |
Sources & timestamps
| Series | Source | ID | Frequency | Last observation | Source last updated | Retrieved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ICE BofA CCC & Lower US High Yield OAS | ICE Data Indices, LLC (via FRED) | BAMLH0A3HYC | Daily | 2026-10-15 | 2026-10-16 13:58 UTC | 2026-10-18 23:08 UTC |