Indicators / Labor Market
Sahm Rule indicator
Sahm Rule recession indicator computed from UNRATE.
Current
±0.00 pp
Observation date 2026-09-01
NormalLIVE
Stress
25
Sahm value
Metric: 0.00 · Trend ↓Improving
History
Percentile 40
Z-score —
History since 1949-03-01
Changes
1W —
1M +0.07 pp
3M −0.07 pp
6M −0.23 pp
12M −0.23 pp
Chart
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Interpretation & scoring
Direction: 3M avg unemployment minus its minimum over the prior 12 months. Crossing 0.50pp has historically coincided with early recession, but it is a heuristic, not a guarantee (e.g. labour-supply shocks can trigger it).
Stress metric: Sahm value (higher = more stress).
Mapping: indicator-specific thresholds (piecewise linear). Metric values -0.20 → 0.20 → 0.35 → 0.50 → 0.80 map to stress 0 → 50 (Watch) → 75 (Elevated) → 90 (Severe) → 100.
0.50pp is the published Sahm threshold; the Severe band begins exactly there.
- threshold: 0.50
- crossed: false
- distance to threshold: 0.50
Contribution to scores
| Score | Category / cluster | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Recession Stress | growth_labor / unemployment | 3.8% | 0.9 |
Sources & timestamps
| Series | Source | ID | Frequency | Last observation | Source last updated | Retrieved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment rate | U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (via FRED) | UNRATE | Monthly | 2026-09-01 | 2026-10-02 13:24 UTC | 2026-10-18 23:08 UTC |