Indicators / Inflation
UMich 1Y inflation expectations
University of Michigan median expected price change, next 12 months.
Current
4.0%
Observation date 2026-08-01
ElevatedRECENT
Stress
75
Survey level
Metric: 4.00 · Trend ↓Improving
History
Percentile 78
Z-score —
History since 1978-01-01
Changes
1W —
1M −0.2 pp
3M −0.8 pp
6M ±0.0 pp
12M −0.8 pp
Chart
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Interpretation & scoring
Direction: Survey (household) inflation expectations.
Stress metric: Survey level (higher = more stress).
Mapping: indicator-specific thresholds (piecewise linear). Metric values 2.00 → 3.20 → 4.00 → 5.00 → 7.00 map to stress 0 → 50 (Watch) → 75 (Elevated) → 90 (Severe) → 100.
Pre-2020 norm was roughly 2.5-3.2%.
Contribution to scores
| Score | Category / cluster | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Stress | survey_expectations / survey | 15.0% | 11.3 |
Sources & timestamps
| Series | Source | ID | Frequency | Last observation | Source last updated | Retrieved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UMich 1-year inflation expectations | University of Michigan (via FRED) | MICH | Monthly | 2026-08-01 | 2026-09-25 15:02 UTC | 2026-10-18 23:09 UTC |