Indicators / Inflation
5Y breakeven inflation
5Y breakeven inflation (market expectations).
Current
2.37%
Observation date 2026-10-16
NormalLIVE
Stress
48
Breakeven level
Metric: 2.37 · Trend ↑Deteriorating
History
Percentile 76
Z-score 0.71
History since 2003-01-02
Changes
1W +3 bps
1M +2 bps
3M +10 bps
6M −19 bps
12M +8 bps
Chart
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Interpretation & scoring
Direction: Market-implied inflation expectations (nominal minus TIPS yield; includes an inflation risk / liquidity premium).
Stress metric: Breakeven level (higher = more stress).
Mapping: indicator-specific thresholds (piecewise linear). Metric values 1.50 → 2.40 → 2.70 → 3.00 → 3.50 map to stress 0 → 50 (Watch) → 75 (Elevated) → 90 (Severe) → 100.
CPI-based breakevens of ~2.3-2.5% are consistent with 2% PCE; sustained moves above 2.7% suggest de-anchoring risk.
Contribution to scores
| Score | Category / cluster | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Stress | market_expectations / breakevens | 10.0% | 4.8 |
Sources & timestamps
| Series | Source | ID | Frequency | Last observation | Source last updated | Retrieved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year breakeven inflation | Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (via FRED) | T5YIE | Daily | 2026-10-16 | 2026-10-16 21:03 UTC | 2026-10-18 23:08 UTC |