Showing SYNTHETIC demo data — Dhan access token expired 01 Oct, 12:49 IST.

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Historical analogues & backtest

How today's factor profile compares with past Indian market episodes, and what followed each sentiment band historically.

Historical periods

Period	Score then	Similarity
2008 Global Financial Crisis 2008-01-08 → 2009-03-09	31	77%
2013 Taper Tantrum 2013-05-22 → 2013-09-04	39	86%
2015 China / global slowdown 2015-08-10 → 2016-02-29	36	82%
2018 NBFC / credit stress 2018-08-29 → 2018-10-26	48	86%
2020 COVID crash 2020-02-20 → 2020-03-24	26	70%
2022 global inflation / rate shock 2022-01-18 → 2022-06-17	34	80%
2024 election volatility 2024-05-13 → 2024-06-07	68	84%
Current	52

Similarity = 100 − mean absolute difference of factor scores over factors available in both periods. It describes resemblance, not a forecast.

Current vs 2015 China / global slowdown

Current conditions share 7 of 16 factor characteristics with the 2015 China / global slowdown (Valuation, Macro Economy, Retail / MF / IPO) but differ in Option Premium Flow (78 now vs 36 then), Volatility (63 now vs 23 then), Currency (79 now vs 40 then).

Factor	Current	Then	Difference
Equity Momentum	52	25	+27
Market Breadth	38	24	+13
Derivatives Positioning	47	21	+26
Option Premium Flow	78	36	+42
Volatility	63	23	+40
FII/DII Flows	49	42	+8
Liquidity	47	24	+23
Currency	79	40	+39
Bond Market	57	63	−6
Credit	46	29	+17
Global Risk Appetite	41	34	+8
Commodities	40	67	−27
Valuation	48	49	−1
Earnings	41	50	−9
Macro Economy	59	61	−2
Retail / MF / IPO	66	64	+2

Differences within ±10 points count as shared characteristics.

Backtest — HISTORICAL OBSERVATIONS, not forecasts

1 day 1 week 1 month 3 months 6 months

Forward NIFTY 50 returns after each sentiment band, 2006-01-02 → 2026-10-19 (1086 weekly observations with ≥ 50% factor coverage). Horizon: 6 months.

Sentiment band	Observations	≈ Independent	Average return	Median return	Positive	Avg max drawdown	Worst max drawdown
Extreme Fear	0	0	—	—	—	—	—
Fear	143	5	+0.18%	+1.21%	53%	-15.2%	-53.9%
Mild Fear	200	7	+5.97%	+8.26%	68%	-10.5%	-46.1%
Neutral	236	9	+8.18%	+7.68%	76%	-9.9%	-39.3%
Mild Greed	332	12	+8.33%	+6.48%	67%	-10.9%	-39.3%
Greed	149	5	+8.61%	+8.08%	67%	-8.8%	-21.7%
Extreme Greed	0	0	—	—	—	—	—

· HISTORICAL OBSERVATIONS — not forecasts or expected returns.
· Scores are reconstructed point-in-time: each date uses only data published by then (publication lags applied) and trailing-only percentiles.
· Weekly sampling; forward windows overlap for horizons longer than one week, so the number of independent observations (shown) is much smaller than the sample count.
· Index-level returns (NIFTY 50 price index, excluding dividends) avoid single-stock survivorship bias; index membership changes are inherent to the index.
· Weights and thresholds are judgement-based and were not optimised on these results (to limit data snooping and overfitting).
· Dates with less than the minimum factor coverage are excluded.