Showing SYNTHETIC demo data — Dhan access token expired 01 Oct, 12:49 IST.

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Historical analogues & backtest

How today's factor profile compares with past Indian market episodes, and what followed each sentiment band historically.

Historical periods

Period	Score then	Similarity
2008 Global Financial Crisis 2008-01-08 → 2009-03-09	31	77%
2013 Taper Tantrum 2013-05-22 → 2013-09-04	39	86%
2015 China / global slowdown 2015-08-10 → 2016-02-29	36	82%
2018 NBFC / credit stress 2018-08-29 → 2018-10-26	48	86%
2020 COVID crash 2020-02-20 → 2020-03-24	26	70%
2022 global inflation / rate shock 2022-01-18 → 2022-06-17	34	80%
2024 election volatility 2024-05-13 → 2024-06-07	68	84%
Current	52

Similarity = 100 − mean absolute difference of factor scores over factors available in both periods. It describes resemblance, not a forecast.

Current vs 2018 NBFC / credit stress

Current conditions share 8 of 16 factor characteristics with the 2018 NBFC / credit stress (Macro Economy, Derivatives Positioning, Global Risk Appetite) but differ in Valuation (48 now vs 1 then), Liquidity (47 now vs 74 then), Currency (79 now vs 53 then).

Factor	Current	Then	Difference
Equity Momentum	52	33	+19
Market Breadth	38	41	−4
Derivatives Positioning	47	46	+1
Option Premium Flow	78	52	+26
Volatility	63	39	+24
FII/DII Flows	49	55	−6
Liquidity	47	74	−27
Currency	79	53	+27
Bond Market	57	53	+4
Credit	46	49	−3
Global Risk Appetite	41	44	−3
Commodities	40	56	−15
Valuation	48	1	+47
Earnings	41	49	−8
Macro Economy	59	58	+0
Retail / MF / IPO	66	82	−16

Differences within ±10 points count as shared characteristics.

Backtest — HISTORICAL OBSERVATIONS, not forecasts

1 day 1 week 1 month 3 months 6 months

Forward NIFTY 50 returns after each sentiment band, 2006-01-02 → 2026-10-19 (1086 weekly observations with ≥ 50% factor coverage). Horizon: 1 month.

Sentiment band	Observations	≈ Independent	Average return	Median return	Positive	Avg max drawdown	Worst max drawdown
Extreme Fear	0	0	—	—	—	—	—
Fear	143	28	−1.88%	−1.29%	42%	-5.8%	-20.8%
Mild Fear	206	41	+0.43%	+0.73%	55%	-4.1%	-19.8%
Neutral	249	49	+1.67%	+1.90%	65%	-3.5%	-17.8%
Mild Greed	334	66	+1.20%	+1.25%	64%	-3.8%	-22.6%
Greed	149	29	+2.58%	+2.72%	76%	-3.0%	-8.3%
Extreme Greed	0	0	—	—	—	—	—

· HISTORICAL OBSERVATIONS — not forecasts or expected returns.
· Scores are reconstructed point-in-time: each date uses only data published by then (publication lags applied) and trailing-only percentiles.
· Weekly sampling; forward windows overlap for horizons longer than one week, so the number of independent observations (shown) is much smaller than the sample count.
· Index-level returns (NIFTY 50 price index, excluding dividends) avoid single-stock survivorship bias; index membership changes are inherent to the index.
· Weights and thresholds are judgement-based and were not optimised on these results (to limit data snooping and overfitting).
· Dates with less than the minimum factor coverage are excluded.