Showing SYNTHETIC demo data — Dhan access token expired 01 Oct, 12:49 IST.

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Historical analogues & backtest

How today's factor profile compares with past Indian market episodes, and what followed each sentiment band historically.

Historical periods

Period	Score then	Similarity
2008 Global Financial Crisis 2008-01-08 → 2009-03-09	31	77%
2013 Taper Tantrum 2013-05-22 → 2013-09-04	39	86%
2015 China / global slowdown 2015-08-10 → 2016-02-29	36	82%
2018 NBFC / credit stress 2018-08-29 → 2018-10-26	48	86%
2020 COVID crash 2020-02-20 → 2020-03-24	26	70%
2022 global inflation / rate shock 2022-01-18 → 2022-06-17	34	80%
2024 election volatility 2024-05-13 → 2024-06-07	68	84%
Current	52

Similarity = 100 − mean absolute difference of factor scores over factors available in both periods. It describes resemblance, not a forecast.

Current vs 2020 COVID crash

Current conditions share 3 of 16 factor characteristics with the 2020 COVID crash (Retail / MF / IPO, Bond Market, Earnings) but differ in Volatility (63 now vs 1 then), Option Premium Flow (78 now vs 20 then), Equity Momentum (52 now vs 2 then).

Factor	Current	Then	Difference
Equity Momentum	52	2	+51
Market Breadth	38	5	+33
Derivatives Positioning	47	10	+38
Option Premium Flow	78	20	+58
Volatility	63	1	+62
FII/DII Flows	49	37	+12
Liquidity	47	36	+11
Currency	79	31	+49
Bond Market	57	53	+4
Credit	46	14	+32
Global Risk Appetite	41	12	+29
Commodities	40	75	−35
Valuation	48	92	−44
Earnings	41	49	−8
Macro Economy	59	42	+17
Retail / MF / IPO	66	69	−3

Differences within ±10 points count as shared characteristics.

Backtest — HISTORICAL OBSERVATIONS, not forecasts

1 day 1 week 1 month 3 months 6 months

Forward NIFTY 50 returns after each sentiment band, 2006-01-02 → 2026-10-19 (1086 weekly observations with ≥ 50% factor coverage). Horizon: 3 months.

Sentiment band	Observations	≈ Independent	Average return	Median return	Positive	Avg max drawdown	Worst max drawdown
Extreme Fear	0	0	—	—	—	—	—
Fear	143	11	−2.46%	−1.07%	45%	-11.3%	-35.0%
Mild Fear	202	15	+1.97%	+2.14%	59%	-7.2%	-32.1%
Neutral	245	18	+4.80%	+4.48%	70%	-6.4%	-37.6%
Mild Greed	334	25	+3.78%	+3.98%	68%	-7.2%	-37.6%
Greed	149	11	+5.69%	+5.97%	71%	-5.7%	-15.2%
Extreme Greed	0	0	—	—	—	—	—

· HISTORICAL OBSERVATIONS — not forecasts or expected returns.
· Scores are reconstructed point-in-time: each date uses only data published by then (publication lags applied) and trailing-only percentiles.
· Weekly sampling; forward windows overlap for horizons longer than one week, so the number of independent observations (shown) is much smaller than the sample count.
· Index-level returns (NIFTY 50 price index, excluding dividends) avoid single-stock survivorship bias; index membership changes are inherent to the index.
· Weights and thresholds are judgement-based and were not optimised on these results (to limit data snooping and overfitting).
· Dates with less than the minimum factor coverage are excluded.